acting faster would have reduced cases in China by 66%

With the progression of the Covid-19 epidemic, the measures to stem its spread are more and more drastic. Closed schools, canceled events and confinement have become commonplace. Are these measures effective? Thanks to a computer simulation, an English study estimated their effects on the coronavirus epidemic.

Coronavirus versus Flu: their differences, their similarities At the very beginning of the epidemic, Covid-19 was compared to the flu, with some calling it "the flu." However, it is not. Since then, scientists around the world have shared their observations, drawing in particular on those of the Chinese.

The Covid-19 is a pneumonia emerging respiratory system for which there is still no preventive treatment or curative able to prevent the spread of coronavirus at its origin. The only way to limit the number of cases is to put in place restrictive or barrier measures nationwide. That's what we have been living for a few weeks.

Are these measures really effective? How do they shape the evolution ofepidemic Covid-19?

A study, prepublished on MedRvix and led by the University of Southampton in England, has created several scenarios IT where restrictive measures have been implemented at different times in China. Their results suggest that current restrictions have reduced the potential number of cases by 66% in the country, but if acted even earlier, the number of cases would have been much lower.

Act quickly to stem the spread of coronavirus

The modelization IT focuses on China and the city of Wuhan, the cradle of the Covid-19 epidemic. This model takes into account the displacement of the population thanks to location data, in almost real time, collected by the site Internet Baidu, the third most visited in China. Scientists have estimated the number of proven cases Covid-19 in their simulation and cross-referenced it with daily data released by the authorities.

As of February 29, the model estimated the number of cases at 114,325 (interquartile range 76,776 –164,576) while the official statement reported 79,300 proven cases in China. Scientists then simulated the implementation of travel ban barrier measures, screening and isolation at different times of the epidemic.

The first measures in China were taken on January 23, 2020, two days before the Chinese New Year, in Wuhan. About one month after the start of the epidemic. If they had been put in place a week before this date, the number of cases could have been reduced by 86% depending on the simulation. Even earlier action, three weeks before January 23, would have reduced the number of cases by 95%.

Acting quickly to contain an epidemic seems to be a primary factor, but the nature of the barrier measures is also crucial.

What are the most effective barrier measures?

Among the measures tested in the computer simulation, not all had the same effect on the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. According to the study, the isolation of patients and contact cases as well as screening for coronavirus infection are the most effective barrier measures to stop its diffusion. Limiting social contacts by canceling gatherings and putting distance in contacts between people is also effective.

Travel and travel restrictions have more moderate effects. This is in line with what has been observed. Despite the suspension of air links to and from Wuhan, the coronavirus still reached Europe and the United States. He also spares no continent, except theAntarctic.

Restoring a normal situation after an epidemic

If these measures are effective, the world's population cannot live this way indefinitely, without the economy suffering. How to return to a normal situation? Researchers advocating keeping barrier measures and simple hygiene practices until the epidemic is lasting controlled.

What about travel restrictions? Lifting travel restrictions by not following barrier measures could create a second, say authors wave infection. In China, previously suspended transport has been gradually rehabilitated in recent days.

Let us not forget that these results remain theoretical. No simulation fully corresponds to reality. In addition, it is confined only to China and therefore cannot accurately reflect the situation in other countries where customs and politics differ.

The key to preventing the spread of an epidemic is implementing effective measures quickly. These measures were right for the coronavirus responsible for Sars in 2002-2003, the scientific community does not yet know if the SARS-CoV-2 will suffer the same fate.

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