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the impact of the various social distancing measures on the evolution of the epidemic was measured

September 23, 2022

German researchers have studied the impacts of the three social distancing measures implemented across the Rhine to combat the spread of the coronavirus. From their observations, an epidemiological model emerges which, according to the authors, can be adapted in other countries.

An epidemiological model designed by researchers from the Max Institute Planck and the University of Göttingen made it possible to estimate the impact of the various social distancing on the spread of Covid-19 in Germany. For this research published in Science, three separate measures of social distancing implemented by the German government have been evaluated. The objective was to design an epidemiological model established with Bayesian inference in order to analyze the temporal dependence of the effective growth rate of new Covid-19 infections.

The first measure of social distancing was to cancel major public events such as sports competitions and trade shows. Next comes the closure of establishments such as schools, bars and cafes and finally, the measures of confinement aimed at minimizing contact between individuals. All of these measures were implemented in three weeks from the beginning of March, the period corresponding to the arrival of theepidemic in Germany.

Noticeable positive effects after three weeks

By studying the country's data on the number of Covid-19 cases until April 21, the researchers could see that these measures had had positive effects on slowing the spread of the virus only two or three weeks after their installation. However, it was not until the third intervention aimed at drastically reducing social interactions that a significant drop in the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 infections was observed.

" Our analysis clearly shows the effect of the various interventions which, together, ultimately led to a strong reversal of the trend. », Underlines Viola Priesemann, head of the research group at the Max Planck Institute. This is confirmed by Michael Wilczek, co-author of the study: " Our model calculations show us the overall effect of the change in people's behavior that goes hand in hand with the interventions. "

Behavior change goes hand in hand with social distancing

Although applied to Germany, the approach can be adapted to other countries or regions, emphasize the authors of the publication. " We demonstrate the potential impact of the timing and scale of the measures put in place regarding the three past government interventions in Germany. Our model can be easily adapted to any other country or region "

In order to predict the potential occurrence of a second wave scientists have also developed three scenarios based on the absence of social distancing, a moderate introduction of these measures or highly limited interactions between individuals.

" If everyone continues to be very careful and if contact tracing by the health authorities is effective, that all new foci of infection are detected and contained early, so the number of cases may continue to decrease. The exact evolution of the figures in the future therefore depends decisively on our behavior, compliance with the recommendations in matter distance and hygiene measures "Concludes Viola Priesemann.

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