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virus could infect "up to 70% of the world's population", says Harvard researcher

A Harvard epidemiologist made a shocking announcement. According to him, up to 70% of humanity could be affected by Covid-19 disease. At this stage, the epidemic seems difficult to control and could even become permanent.

The spread ofepidemic Covid-19 has jumped outside of China in recent days. As of February 25, 2020, there were 977 confirmed cases and 10 deaths in South Korea. Iran has gone from zero to 61 confirmed cases and 15 deaths in the space of a few days. In Europe, Italy is now the foyer of the most important epidemic with 270 confirmed cases and 7 deaths, mainly in the north of the country, in Lombardy. The origin of the new cases in Italy and South Korea has not yet been determined.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General ofWHO, worries: " the sudden increase in the number of cases in Italy, Iran and South Korea is very worrying "

Containment is the first reflex implemented in any epidemic to limit its spread. Facing coronavirus, China reacted by quarantining cities of several million inhabitants in January. Despite this, the virus East out of Wuhan to infect China and other countries around the world.

According to Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, this is just the start. He stated that " (The epidemic) will not be contained and that, in the year, 40 to 70% of humanity will be infected " in the lines of The Atlantic.

Contain the Covid-19 epidemic

The figure announced by Marc Lipsitch may make you shudder, but remember that most infected people only suffer from symptoms mild, some are even asymptomatic. This is why the epidemic is difficult to channel and track. The actual number of people with the virus seems to be underestimated. according to a report from Center for global Infectious Disease Analysis, the current count of cases would only show a third of actual cases.

From this point of view, the current epidemic of coronavirus is comparable to that of influenza seasonal. It can be fatal for people vulnerable to age or another disease, but many of us have already had the flu without dying or even consult a doctor, others have asymptomatic infections. Epidemiologists push theanalogy further and think that Covid-19 could become seasonal.

Covid-19, a new seasonal disease?

After reaching a pandemic threshold, the epidemic could continue. " Depending on what the virus does, it could very well settle down as a respiratory illness that comes back every season Explains Stephan Walrus, epidemiologist at the University of Colombia, to the site STAT. This idea is also shared by Marc Lipsitch and other specialists.

Other human coronaviruses (strains 229 E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1) circulate continuously in the population and cause episodic colds or other respiratory conditions. In this case, it is no longer a question of confining the epidemic, but of limiting the cases and controlling the epidemic peak through public health measures.

There would then be a season of Covid-19 like there is a flu season or the gastroenteritis viral.

Regarding the pandemic, WHO remains cautious about the use of this word. It has not yet been pronounced by its director, even if he declared in a press release : " Does the virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely. Are we already there? According to our assessments, not yet. "

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