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Which African countries are most vulnerable to coronavirus?

The virus responsible for the Covid-19 epidemic has just infected a first person in Egypt. If the country's infrastructures have made it possible to take charge of the patient, the other nations of the African continent do not necessarily have the same advances. Modeling work carried out by an Inserm team has determined which countries are the most vulnerable to the epidemic.

The Covid-19 epidemic no longer spares any continent. A first case on the African continent was identified on February 14, 2020 in Egypt. The patient is in quarantine at Al-Negila hospital in Matrouh, in the west of the country. As of February 20, 2020, theepidemic affects 75,752 people and 2,130 died.

A study, published in The Lancet and conducted by French researchers from Inserm, details the vulnerability of African countries to the epidemic of Covid-19. By taking into account the health infrastructure but also the demography of each country linked to China, the scientists were able to determine which are the most threatened by the global epidemic.

Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are the most exposed

Scientists have identified the three countries most at risk of importing virus : Algeria, Egypt and South Africa because they all maintain sustained air traffic with the infected provinces in China. However, their very high Spar and IDVI scores suggest that they are able to effectively detect and contain the epidemic.

On the other hand, countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana and even Kenya are much less likely to see an import case arriving on the territory. But their Spar and IDVI scores are lower. If the virus gets there, it is possible that it will not be detected in time and will start to spread.

The influence of Chinese airports

The import of the Covid-19 epidemic is not only happening in Africa. Indeed, the evolution of the epidemic in certain key Chinese provinces could well be a game-changer. This is the case for example in the province of Beijing where many planes leave for Africa. The airline company Ethiopian Airlines still covers half of its journeys with China.

Scientists have divided countries into three groups based on their air link to China. Thus, if the epidemic increases in the Beijing region, 18 countries on the African continent (listed below) would become more vulnerable. If the epidemic increases in Guangdong province, there are 7 other countries in which the risk of importation of the virus could increase. The province of Hubei was not taken into account since all the airports and stations are stationary there.

" This work makes it possible to project oneself according to the evolution of the situation in China. It also makes it possible to alert the countries most exposed to the need to prepare for the possibility of introduction of the virus. However, we can clearly see the difficulty of quickly detecting cases imported abroad, including in developed countries. For several African countries with scarce resources to manage an epidemic, the risks are significant of not having the organization and infrastructure for detection, containment, care of the sick, which raises the risk of epidemic on the continent ", Concludes Vittoria Colizza, director of research at Inserm and head of the study, in A press release.

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