WHO mentions the risk of a "pandemic". The financial markets are feverish

It was perhaps still only "the submerged part of the iceberg" had warned WHO in early February. The World Health Organization now cites the risk of a "pandemic", noting the acceleration of contamination by Sars-CoV-2 worldwide. More than thirty countries are affected and the coronavirus also worries the financial markets.

Theviral pneumonia epidemic accelerated across the globe on MondayWHO evoking a risk of " pandemic Against a backdrop of tumbling financial markets worried about the global economy. " We have to focus on containment (of theepidemic again coronavirus, editor's note), while doing everything we can to prepare for a possible pandemic "Said the Director General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The WHO has notably judged " very worrying (…) the sudden increase »New cases in Italy, South Korea and Iran. However, it has observed a decline in China, the country of origin of the disease, since the beginning of February. In Europe, Italy, which now has seven dead, has become the first country on the continent to set up a health cordon around ten cities in the North.

The Covid-19 epidemic affects more than 30 countries

Two months after the appearance of the new coronavirus, five countries have announced the first cases of contamination: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and Oman which suspends its flights with Iran. South Korea and Iran are on the front line, with the highest number of contamination and death cases outside China, respectively. Hong Kong has decided to ban Tuesday's arrivals of non-residents from South Korea and called on Hong Kong residents to refrain from unnecessary travel.

Less than a week after the detection of the new coronavirus, Tehran, for its part, announced four new deaths, bringing to 12 the number of victims of the epidemic in the Islamic Republic, where a WHO mission is expected. With 64 people infected in Iran, this death rate of one in five seems much higher than that observed so far in China (around 3%).

A deputy from Qom, the city where the first cases of coronavirus were announced, accused the government of " don't tell the truth On the scale of the epidemic. According to an Iranian news agency, the deputy would have mentioned the figure of 50 dead for the city of Qom alone, an assessment categorically denied by a deputy health minister. Worried about the contagion in Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Jordan, Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan have closed their borders or restricted trade with this country. At least 200 people have been quarantined in Pakistan, on the Iranian border.

In total, more than thirty countries are now affected, with a toll that far exceeds 30 deaths outside of China. South Korea alone, with a daily record of 231 new cases of infection in 24 hours, now has more than 800 infected patients, seven of whom are fatal, more than Japan where the liner Diamond Princess was up to 'now the first source of contamination outside of China. Mongolia, which has already closed its border with China but has so far escaped virus, announced the suspension of air links with South Korea.

Concerns over North Korea, stuck between China and South Korea

Between China and South Korea, North Korea has not yet reported any contamination, but concern is mounting about this country with a fragile health system. The Red Cross announced on Monday that it had obtained an exemption from the UN sanctions to transport medical supplies there in the event of the possible arrival of the epidemic.

In China itself, where the coronavirus appeared in December in the metropolis of Wuhan, the epidemic left another 150 dead according to the last daily report announced Monday morning. While the authorities have been more optimistic in recent days about the development of the sickness, this figure constitutes a clear increase compared to the number of deaths announced the day before (97). In total, nearly 2,600 people died in China, out of 77,000 cases of contamination. The number of new cases of contamination, however, fell to 409 against 648 announced Sunday.

WHO has judged that the situation in this country is generally improving. According to the specialized agency of the UN, the epidemic in China knew a peak, then a plateau between January 23 and February 2. " Since then, it has continued to decline », Assured its general manager. Studies in China have also shown " that there was no significant change in the DNA of the coronavirus ", he added.

WHO travels to Wuhan

For the first time since the discovery of the virus, a team of WHO experts visited the city in quarantine over the weekend. As a sign of the gravity of the situation, the communist regime decided to postpone the annual session of parliament, which was due to open on March 5, the first in three decades.

In Wuhan, the town hall has renounced the measures of relaxation under the quarantine conditions that it had itself announced in the morning in favor of its non-residents. The city and its province of Hubei have been cut off from the world for a month. Consequence of the appearance of the virus on a city market, the Chinese parliament decided Monday to ban completely and immediately the trade and consumption ofwild animals.

Coronavirus Sinks Financial Places

In Italy, in addition to the cordon cordon established around 11 northern cities, the famous Venice Carnival, which was due to end on Tuesday, was canceled as early as Sunday. An aircraft of the Italian company Alitalia was stuck on its landing in Mauritius. The passengers were authorized to disembark, with the exception of around sixty people from Lombardy and Veneto, the regions most affected.

Faced with the outbreak of cases in Italy, going from 6 to 219 in four days, the European Commission does not however wish for the immediate restoration of border controls inside the EU, a decision which remains to be initiative of the Member States.

The global acceleration of contamination has caused the stock markets, particularly in Europe, to stall. The director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the crisis " could jeopardize recovery "World. The IMF has already lowered its growth forecast for China in 2023by 0.4 points to 5.6%. With China being the second largest economy in the world, this decline should cost 0.1 points of growth to global GDP.

Coronavirus: maybe just the tip of the iceberg

ABSMARTHEALTH article with AFP-Relaxnews, published on February 10, 2020

In France, five new cases, all of British nationality, were confirmed on Saturday in Haute-Savoie; 11 cases were reported in France. Outside of China, where more than 900 people have died, the epidemic of the new coronavirus could accelerate with the transmission of the disease by people who have never traveled to this country, warns the WHO.

" There have been disturbing cases of spread of # 2019nCoV by people with no travel history (in China), tweeted the Director General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, using the provisional scientific name of virus. Detection of a small number of cases may indicate a transmission more common in other countries; in short, we may only see the tip of the iceberg. "

The advisability of the containment strategy

While the expansion of the epidemic outside of China seems rather measured, Mr. Ghebreyesus warned that it could accelerate: " Containment (of the virus) remains our goal, but all countries must use the window of opportunity created by the containment strategy to prepare for the possible arrival of the virus ". Outside mainland China, more than 350 patients have been recorded in some 30 countries and territories, and there have been two deaths, the first in the Philippines, the second in Hong Kong.

Several countries have banned arrivals from China and large Airlines companies have suspended their flights in connection with this country. Air China has canceled some of its flights to the United States. In mainland China, the new coronavirus has left 908 dead, and the number of people infected exceeds 40,000, according to the report established Monday by the authorities. A WHO international expert mission led by Bruce Aylward, a veteran who worked on other health emergencies, left for China on Sunday evening, where it plans to help coordinate a response to the health crisis triggered at the end of 2019 in the city of Wuhan (central China).

Coronavirus: what are the risks of the spread of the epidemic in Europe?

ABSMARTHEALTH article with AFP-Relaxnews, published on January 24, 2020

Will the coronavirus epidemic in China arrive in Europe and when? Everyone is asking the question, especially since the number of victims continues to increase in this country. So what is the probability that at least one case will be imported into Europe in the next fortnight? An Inserm team has just developed two scenarios for diffusion possible of the epidemic towards the health authorities in order to guide them in the prevention and surveillance for the 2019-nCov virus, even if these are only theoretical tools and not predictive.

Just two weeks after announcing the discovery of a new virus from the coronavirus family, responsible for pneumonia severe, China recorded 571 cases on its territory. To contain the epidemic, which has already caused 18 deaths, several drastic measures have already been put in place by Chinese authorities, including travel restrictions from Hubei Province, where the city of Wuhan is located.

At the moment, many questions still arise about the origin of this new virus, dubbed 2019-nCov, but also about the ability to the epidemic to spread to other regions of the world, especially Europe. In two weeks, eight cases have already been exported from China to Japan, South Korea, the United States, Thailand, Taiwan and Australia. From the start of the epidemic, Inserm researchers under the aegis of the REACTing research group worked to develop models for possible dissemination of the epidemic.

Under the direction of the Inserm researcher, Vittoria Colizza, within the Pierre Louis Institute of epidemiology and public health (Inserm-Sorbonne University), a team is now able to propose a model allowing to anticipate a potential arrival of the epidemic in Europe in order to guide surveillance and prevention measures. It is nevertheless important to note that this model does not in any way constitute a prediction of the number of cases to come on French and European territory, but rather a theoretical tool to aid public decision.

Two possible scenarios depending on air flows from China

To develop their model, the researchers looked at all the Chinese provinces reporting more than ten cases. Their export risk estimates for these cases are based on data from air flows from these regions to Europe from January 2019 and from the OAG, a world leader organization in the collection of air flight data. What is the risk that at least one case will be imported into Europe in the next two weeks? This is the question that the team sought to answer by developing two scenarios, that of a low risk of spread of the epidemic and that of a high risk of diffusion.

The low-risk dissemination scenario is based on the state of the situation (7 cases exported from China) before the air quarantine decided by the Chinese government. He thus estimates the risk of exporting at least one case to Europe if seven cases were exported from the Chinese provinces affected by the epidemic in the next two weeks.

The high-risk scenario for the spread of the epidemic suggests an estimate of this same risk if three times as many cases were exported outside China. "This is an arbitrary choice, but one which reflects the fact that the number of Chinese cases is constantly increasing, and which makes it possible to anticipate the case of a more massive export of the number of infected people ", underlines Vittoria Colizza.

Which European countries are the most exposed?

According to the researchers, the risk of at least one case being imported into Europe in the first scenario is 33% and 70% in the second scenario. Given the air flows, the most exposed countries would be Germany and the United Kingdom. The risk that an infected passenger arrives in France is 5% in scenario 1 and 13% in scenario 2, and would mainly focus on airports in the Paris region.

"Our results are not predictions, they simply identify where the risk lies and where it is necessary to deploy surveillance and prevention means.increasedinsists Vittoria Colizza.

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