why the announced catastrophe did not take place?

Experts have been announcing for months a surge in the coronavirus epidemic in Africa, where poverty and the lack of health infrastructure raise fears of the worst. However, while the first case dates back to February 14 on the continent, the wave has still not arrived. How to explain this relative preservation?

Since the first case of coronavirus on the continent, on February 14 in Egypt, experts predict a frightening scenario. Africa would quickly be overwhelmed by the pandemic of Covid-19 with the key to a health cataclysm in a poor continent with a failing health system. The World Health Organization (WHO) calls the continent almost every day " to prepare for the worst " Two months later, the tsunami has still not taken place, when European countries and the United States are severely hit.

Africa is the continent least affected by the coronavirus epidemic

With 1,216 deaths and 26,058 cases recorded as of April 22, Africa is the continent least affected by theepidemic of coronavirus. Algeria is the country with the highest number of deaths (402) ahead of Egypt, Morocco and South Africa. By comparison, France and its 66 million inhabitants has passed the 20,000 Covid-19 death mark. So why does Africa with its 1.2 billion inhabitants seem to be escaping the epidemic?

Obviously, the low number of tests and the lack of data partially distort the balance sheet, the number of cases probably being largely underestimated. The head of the African Center for Control and prevention of diseases, John Nkengasong, concedes to AFP that, for lack of tests, the statistics are not perfect. But he rules out the idea that many cases go under the radar. " Hospitals are invaded by patients, which is not the case Confirms the doctor. Other factors can however provide some explanations.

A step ahead

The epidemic spread to Africa a few weeks after Europe, allowing its leaders to adopt preventive measures well in advance. " Even before the detection of the first cases of coronavirus on Rwandan soil, we took hygienic measures very early on, which were applied throughout most of the territory. Corroborates Doctor Sabin Nsanzimana, Director General of the Rwanda Biomedical Center, at RFI. South Africa, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria have imposed a containment and curfews before the epidemic has had time to spread.

Low population density

With 43 inhabitants per square kilometer, compared to 181 in Western Europe or 154 in Southeast Asia, Africa remains a continent sparsely populated in most regions. The inhabitants are generally concentrated in the capitals, which were very early confined. In Côte d'Ivoire, Greater Abidjan has been officially isolated from the rest of the country since March 30. Ditto in Lagos, where the inhabitants of the two megalopolises, Abuja and Lagos, are prohibited from leaving the city. This low density considerably limits the contacts and therefore the transmission of virus.

Less movement of people

Unlike most Western countries, many African regions remain very isolated and live in near-self-sufficiency. The virus therefore circulates very little in the population. Africa is also much less touristy than Europe or the United States. Of the 50 busiest airports in the world, only one is African (that of Johannesburg). Africa also does not have a large diaspora like China or India, which has to cope with the return of many students returning from abroad. Little large population movements have also been observed in sub-Saharan Africa.

A much younger age pyramid

About 60% of the African population is under the age of 25. The coronavirus especially hits the elderly : in France, 75% of the people who died from Covid-19 are over 75 years old. Northern Italy, the most affected region in the world, is also characterized by a very large elderly population. " In Africa, there are no more old people to kill on the continent Sarcastically sums up the Ivorian writer Gauz, in a tribune on the site of Young Africa. Africa also has a very low rate ofobesity, which is a risk factor major mortality at Covid-19.

Pre-existing immunity?

A preliminary study from the NHS (National Health Service) and of King's College shows a negative correlation between the countries affected by the malaria and those affected by Covid-19, which she explains by a possible protective effect of prophylactic treatments for malaria such as chloroquine against the coronavirus. However, 93% of malaria cases are recorded in Africa, according to WHO. According to another study, it's here routine BCG vaccination deployed in Africa which could explain the immunization of the population. Countries without a vaccination universal of BCG as Italy and the United States are conversely the most affected by Covid-19, note the authors. Correlations which however provide no proof of cause and effect.

Famine, locusts, collapsing economy: these other, much more concrete threats

Despite these advantages, Africa risks paying the price of the Covid-19 epidemic. Consequence of border closures, containment measures and rising food prices, " the number of people at risk of starvation in West Africa could almost triple in three months ", Alerted the NGO Oxfam April 21. A invasion of locusts is also wreaking havoc right now in East Africa. In Ethiopia, 200,000 hectares of land crops have been devoured and one million people are now in need of emergency food aid. The coronavirus pandemic has also discontinued most immunization campaigns against polio, the measles where the diphtheria. In Africa, the coronavirus is far from being the priority of the inhabitants.

Which African countries are most vulnerable to coronavirus?

Article by Julie Kern published on 20/02/2020

The virus responsible for the Covid-19 epidemic has just infected a first person in Egypt. If the country's infrastructures have made it possible to take charge of the patient, the other nations of the African continent do not necessarily have the same advances. A work of modelization carried out by an Inserm team has determined which countries are the most vulnerable to the epidemic.

The Covid-19 epidemic no longer spares any continent. A first case on the African continent was identified on February 14, 2020 in Egypt. The patient is in quarantine at Al-Negila hospital in Matrouh, in the west of the country. As of February 20, 2020, the epidemic affects 75,752 people and 2,130 have died.

A study, published in The Lancet and conducted by French researchers from Inserm, details the vulnerability of African countries to the epidemic of Covid-19. By taking into account the health infrastructure but also the demography of each country linked to China, the scientists were able to determine which are the most threatened by the global epidemic.

Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are the most exposed

Scientists have identified the three countries most exposed to the risk of importation of the virus: Algeria, Egypt and South Africa because they all maintain sustained air traffic with the infected provinces in China. However, their very high Spar and IDVI scores suggest that they are able to effectively detect and contain the epidemic.

On the other hand, countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana and even Kenya are much less likely to see an import case arriving on the territory. But their Spar and IDVI scores are lower. If the virus gets there, it is possible that it will not be detected in time and will start to spread.

The influence of Chinese airports

The import of the Covid-19 epidemic is not only happening in Africa. Indeed, the evolution of the epidemic in certain key Chinese provinces could well be a game-changer. This is the case for example in the province of Beijing where many planes leave for Africa. The airline company Ethiopian Airlines still covers half of its journeys with China.

Scientists have divided countries into three groups based on their air link to China. Thus, if the epidemic increases in the Beijing region, 18 countries on the African continent (listed below) would become more vulnerable. If the epidemic increases in Guangdong province, there are 7 other countries in which the risk of importation of the virus could increase. The province of Hubei was not taken into account since all the airports and stations are stationary there.

" This work makes it possible to project oneself according to the evolution of the situation in China. It also makes it possible to alert the countries most exposed to the need to prepare for the possibility of introduction of the virus. However, we can clearly see the difficulty of quickly detecting cases imported abroad, including in developed countries. For several African countries with scarce resources to manage an epidemic, the risks are significant of not having the organization and infrastructure for detection, containment, care of the sick, which raises the risk of epidemic on the continent "Concludes Vittoria Colizza, research director at Inserm and head of the study, in A press release.

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